Commenting on her hopes for 2022 for DB Pensions Schemes, Susan McIlvogue, Head of DB Pensions, Hymans Robertson says:
“We expect DB schemes to face a number of governance challenges in 2022, many of which are linked to the Pension Schemes Act 2021. New regulatory powers and notifiable events—backed by significant fines and criminal offences—will encourage sponsors to think differently. A green governance perspective will continue to build momentum, with more schemes affected by climate-change reporting obligations. The delayed single Code of Practice will come into force as early as summer this year, meaning a significant ramping up of governance polices and processes. On top of this, 2022 looks set to be the year when most schemes tackle GMP equalisation in earnest.
“However, my main thoughts as we look forward to the new year is what we won’t see happen in 2022, and that is the Regulator tying a neat ribbon round a new Code of Practice on Funding Defined Benefits. It has been held up whilst waiting for the DWP to produce draft regulations, making the hopes of a new code in force next year less likely. Nevertheless, the release of draft regulations and a draft Code should be imminent in 2022 so trustees and sponsors should soon get a glimpse of what’s in store for them.
“Lastly, 2022 is set to be the year when we see the first schemes entering commercial consolidators. With a wider range of alternative risk transfer vehicles emerging, trustees need to make sure they keep up with developments and fully understand the range of options available. Whilst commercial consolidation will be the right answer for some, traditional buy-out will be the destination for the majority and end game planning will be a major theme for trustees and corporates during 2022. In a complete contrast to a year ago, insurer pipelines for 2022 buy-in transactions are very busy and so this year could get close to the records set in 2019, when there were £44bn of buy-ins and buy-outs. The strong and growing demand from pension schemes to complete buy-ins means that we wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two insurance companies enter the risk transfer market for the first time over the next few years.”
Commenting on the three main investment issues in the pensions’ world, David Walker, Chief Investment Officer, Hymans Robertson says:
“Rising inflation in the second half of 2021 and the potential for this to extend into 2022 remains a real concern, and schemes, members and individuals need to be aware of the implications this can bring to both the current and future value of pensions benefits and retirement savings.
“As the UK pensions market matures, this is going to pose questions around the ability to continue to maintain illiquidity, particularly as strategies that schemes have invested in over the last decade release cash. There is likely to be a growing divide in those that can invest for the longer term and seek to benefit from the illiquidity premium and investors with shorter term cash requirements. More innovation will be required to help schemes and investors access or maintain allocations to more illiquid asset classes.
“For many in the investment market, 2021 will be remembered for the increasing importance we, as an industry, placed on climate change as we took note of what was being called for in COP26. Our industry has made great strides but can, and must continue to, do more to make change happen. The need for action and a continued drive to act will follow us into this year, with the importance of companies doing more to address, and meet, their climate obligations. However, this must go beyond a tick box exercise – bold commitments are needed to mitigate further change, and action must take place sooner rather than later. We believe that stewardship by asset owners needs to continue to evolve and want to see increased accountability across the value chain.”
Commenting on her hopes for 2022 and the LGPS, Catherine McFadyen, Head of LGPS Consulting, Hymans Robertson says:
“2022 will be a jam-packed year for LGPS funds with perseverance, the Cambridge Dictionary’s word of the year, being a central theme. Climate risk will undoubtedly be at the forefront as we move on from COP26 with actions. The long-awaited TCFD report will impact decision making, with net zero targets and scenario modelling at the top of the to-do list.
“As we emerge from our second year of the pandemic the challenges remain with employer income and reserves, and this will be a real and worrying consideration. The rise in inflation, and the knock-on effect for funding individuals, is also a concern. On the flip side, funding positions are strong across the LGPS, and this will help when managing these challenges at the English and Welsh valuations.
“Administration challenges for the LGPS will be plentiful this year. Data will need to be in good shape not only for forthcoming valuations, but also at individual member level to prepare for McCloud, the Pensions Dashboard and, more broadly, to meet changing member expectations within administration functions and in communications. Planning will be vital with robust change management required as funds juggle competing demands with tight resources.
“From a Governance point of view, we anticipate the final outcomes of the SAB Good Governance Review as well as TPR’s Single Code of Practice. Given the level of delivery and wide variety of topics, from the valuation and administration challenges to increased regulatory focus on governance and cyber risk, ensuring accessible training and good decision making at committee and board has never been more important. Making information accessible, succinct and relevant will be key success factors.”
Mark Jaffray, Head of DC Consulting at Hymans Robertson reviews the next year’s priorities:
“We expect 2022 to be characterised by a continuation of many of the trends seen in 2021, with the theme of consolidation remaining central. We’ve already seen the master trust market starting to consolidate – with a reduction of 2 to 36 over 2021 – and this number is likely to continue to fall to between 30-33 over the next 12 months. On the back of increased governance, and clear policy direction from Government, we also expect to see the inexorable move from single trust schemes to master trusts gain pace in 2022. However where single trust schemes are retained, we will see an upping of the game across the board in terms of investment strategies, communications, administration and retirement support.
“Pension pot sizes are rising, as are the overall value of DC arrangements, and we expect many more employers to recognise the risks in a ‘set and forget’ pensions strategy and to establish governance committees to monitor the overall value delivered by their provider. We also are likely to see the start of a trend to hold providers more to account and to see employers move from their current provider if they are not delivering value.
“As more DC members come up to retirement, there will be further development in post-retirement investment strategies and pre-retirement support to members. We would also like to see an increasing focus on the gender pensions gap and how this can be addressed.
“Member communications will become more digital, and with the launch of the simpler annual benefit statements, and the increasing use of voting apps which allow members to express their views on responsible investment issues, leading to an increase of member interest in their pension arrangements. This inevitably will put pressure on fiduciaries to think more about how their pension arrangements align with their company’s sustainable development goal targets.
“In terms of risks, we expect to see cyber criminals becoming more sophisticated leading to the number of pension scams increasing, as well as an increase in the threat to data. This will require everyone involved in the pensions industry to be ever more vigilant and to invest in ways to spot and stop these sort of attacks.”