Leading Intelligence Provider Warns Russian Threats To Withdraw From Black Sea Grain Deal Would Be Catastrophic For Poorer Nations

Aerial front view of a loaded container cargo vessel traveling over calm ocean


Leading intelligence provider KCS Group Europe (KCSGE) is warning that Russian threats not to renew the Black Sea Grain Deal would be catastrophic for poorer nations.

The deal, which established a protected wartime corridor for grain and fertiliser exports from three Ukrainian ports, is due to run out on May 18th.

The UN said the deal had helped to alleviate a global food crisis which has been worsened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


KCSGE CEO Stuart Poole-Robb says: “We have previously highlighted the risks attached to the grain deal. It is vital to the lives of many of the world’s poorest communities that it continues.”


Russia states that there will be no extension unless the West agrees to the reconnection of Russian Agricultural Bank – Rosselkhozbank – to the Swift banking transfer system.

It also demands concessions on the export of its own grain and fertilisers and the resumption of the supply of agricultural machinery and spare parts, together with the lifting of some restrictions on insurance and reinsurance.


Poole-Robb says: “By threatening the end of the Black Sea Grain Deal, Russia is attempting to gain more political leverage over the United Nations.

“Currently, we are in the absurd position that Russia is chair of the rotating monthly presidency of the 15-strong UN Security Council. That is despite invading its neighbour, being subject to sanctions and an arrest warrant for Putin on charges of war crimes.”


Previously,  KCS Group Europe has noted that support for Ukraine has been less vocal from African governments, with many remaining neutral or offering quiet support for Putin’s actions.

Closing the grain corridor would lead to an increase in global grain prices at a time when many countries are facing rises in the import costs of fuel and food.


Poole-Robb adds: “By using threats to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Deal, Russia is cynically exerting pressure on the governments of poorer nations, which rely on it to feed their populations, to press forward its demands on the West.”


KCS Group Europe is a London-based organisation which provides discreet intelligence, corporate security and cyber services around the world.